Julian Nagelsmann doesn’t want to dwell on it, but it’s hard not to consider: would Germany have been better off if Niclas Fullkrug hadn’t scored that 92nd-minute equalizer against Switzerland in the final group game? A 1-0 defeat would have put Germany second in their group, placing them on a more forgiving side of the draw and possibly making them the biggest force there.
Nagelsmann might argue that without that equalizer, Germany wouldn’t have their unbeaten record or the emotional momentum that comes with it. They wouldn’t have the same aura. Euro 2024 wouldn’t have a fixture as enticing as Spain vs. Germany on Friday.
This match has all the elements to be the game of the tournament. Both teams are among the favorites, and it’s a clash of the stirring hosts against the team of the tournament so far. Germany and Spain are the top-scoring teams at Euro 2024, with performances suggesting many more goals to come. Spain could easily have doubled their nine goals so far, especially in wins over Georgia and Italy.
It’s a pity that, partly due to Fullkrug’s goal, a match like this is taking place so early. It looks like it should be the final. It might even be viewed as the “real final.”
The match has the potential to be a Euro 2024 equivalent of Brazil 1-1 France in 1986, Netherlands 2-1 Argentina in 1998, Germany 1-1 Argentina in 2006, Belgium 2-1 Brazil in 2018, or Italy 2-1 Belgium in 2021. Such quarter-final epics often define the legacy of a tournament and influence how it’s remembered. However, most of these spectacles didn’t come from the European Championships, and very few winners ended up as champions.
The concentrated nature of previous tournaments meant that momentous quarter-finals required a high-performing team to finish second in the group. That was rare, as teams good enough to bring the anticipation that Spain and Germany do usually also had enough convincing performances to finish first. The expansion to 24 teams and the strange nature of the last 16 now bring these types of crossovers. That was why we finally saw such a game in Italy’s raucous 2-1 win over Belgium at Euro 2020. Ironically, it was Italy’s last truly expansive performance. And they were more restrained in the last two games that secured the trophy.
A potential “real final” may not see either team in the actual final, as such epic games can take too much out of teams. Spain vs. Germany could develop into a similar sort of game, which would be great for everyone else. Both teams have newfound confidence.
Germany’s confidence comes from this tournament and Fullkrug’s goal against Switzerland. While Euro 2024 hasn’t recreated the public mood of 2006, it has been similar for the team. A young squad has shown significant progress to be proper contenders, similar to that German World Cup. There’s a satisfaction with their performance and a readiness for a huge challenge.
Spain hasn’t been afflicted by the anxiety that has subdued them since their last trophy at Euro 2012. Even when they went behind for the first time against Georgia in the last 16, they played with a new ferocity. Spain doesn’t have the quantity of senior stars from the 2008-12 glory era, but Rodri’s precise finish guided them through.
Spain no longer needs to pass endlessly until a gap presents itself. They can force those gaps with two of the fastest players in the competition, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. They have a pace that even the 2008-12 team didn’t possess.
This could further fuel the game, as Germany is most vulnerable out wide in defense. Nagelsmann is considering ways to counteract this. Germany hasn’t faced a three-man defensive system in this tournament, which might allow more space for Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, and Kai Havertz. Spain might approach this game like their 3-0 win over Croatia, willing to cede possession, leading to a constant exchange of quick transitions.
This quarter-final already feels different from their match 18 months ago at the 2022 World Cup. Both teams have endured a decade of frustration after historic eras.
Talk on the meaning of it all might have to wait until the end of the tournament. For now, this is one to enjoy. It has all the elements of an epic.
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