Pat Cummins’ chances of being fit for the first Ashes Test are diminishing, with just over six weeks until the series opener in Perth. Recent scans on his lumbar bone stress injury showed improvement but not enough for him to bowl again. Cricket Australia have not confirmed a return date, but Cummins’ rehabilitation continues without certainty over his participation in the series.
Cummins has not bowled since Australia’s last Test in Jamaica in July. After the injury emerged in September, he expressed willingness to take risks to play, even skipping lead-up matches. However, building bowling loads in time for Perth is now increasingly difficult. He has focused on leg strength work but cannot do rotational exercises, raising concerns of further injury. His history of soft tissue and ankle issues adds complexity to his preparation.
The Ashes begin November 21 in Perth, followed by Brisbane (December 4), Adelaide (December 17), Melbourne, and Sydney. If Cummins requires extra time, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Scott Boland could manage the early Tests without breaks. Managing their workload will be crucial, especially given the tight scheduling later in the series. Starc and Hazlewood are set to play ODIs against India from October 19, and Hazlewood will also feature in T20Is. Boland has already started Shield cricket but will likely play sparingly this season. Michael Neser, Brendan Doggett, and Sean Abbott are also in contention to bolster the pace attack.
Cummins’ absence would also mean a new Test captain. Steven Smith, who has led Australia six times since 2021, is the most likely candidate, with Travis Head as another option, though less favoured. Australia face a significant challenge balancing player workload while preparing for a high-stakes Ashes series.
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