The North Carolina Tar Heels face an uphill battle for an NCAA Tournament spot as 2025 begins, following a tough loss to Louisville on Wednesday. The defeat led to a significant drop in their NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking, which slipped four places. With a 2-6 record in Quad 1 games, UNC now finds itself firmly on the bubble for the upcoming tournament.
In Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology update on Friday, he placed the Tar Heels in the “Last Four In” category, positioning them as one of the final teams vying for inclusion. As the first team in this section, UNC ranks 65th in Lunardi’s latest mock bracket, a sharp decline from their earlier standing to start the season, and even from the Bracketology released just days earlier.
Alongside UNC in the “Last Four In” are SMU, BYU, and Drake. The Tar Heels’ upcoming matchup against SMU on Monday in Chapel Hill is crucial, with the loser of the game likely falling out of Lunardi’s bracket entirely.
Behind North Carolina, the “First Four Out” includes Vanderbilt, Iowa, Missouri, and Arizona State—teams to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
For UNC, the message is clear: they must secure wins in their remaining games and defeat opponents they are expected to beat. Their immediate focus shifts to a Saturday game against Notre Dame, followed by the pivotal showdown with SMU on Tuesday. The Tar Heels have no time to waste as they fight to stay on track for the NCAA Tournament.
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